These items were supposed to revolutionize the solar industry. Why not?
Solar panels are basically silicon-like. The materials used make up about 95% of the panels in today’s market. But silicon solar cells are limited in how much energy they can use from the sun, and they are still very expensive to make.
For many, compounds called perovskites have long been recommended as the cheapest, lightest, and most efficient solar system. But despite the excitement - and a host of technological advances - some experts warn that perovskite-based solar cells could take up to ten years to make a significant commercial impact, if possible.
Although recent research on perovskite cells has shown improvements in key metrics as efficiency, the fact is that the materials may still be far from being able to withstand real-world conditions.
"I think the [perovskite] community as a whole is making a misleading impression that things will trade," said Martin Green, a solar researcher at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
Perovskite is a family of synthetic materials that absorb most of the sun's rays and are easily used to cover surface areas, enabling cheap solar cells to harness solar energy and convert it into electricity.
Although silicon has an important metrics that researchers use to test solar panels, perovskites adhere strongly. That is especially true of efficiency - how much energy from the sun is converted into electricity. Both silicon and perovskites have recently set more than 25% records.
The rapid advances in work on perovskites have led to a huge influx of emerging researchers. Science papers have announced new successes, and funding has followed. The US Department of Energy, for example, provides the first perovskite business plan.
The first few companies, such as Microquanta Semiconductor, Oxford PV, and Saul Technologies, received millions of dollars and used demonstration projects.
But despite the hype, there are a few important reasons why your solar installation on the next roof is unlikely to be enabled by perovskites. At the top of the list: too weak.
Yes, they are stronger than ever. Perovskites were often isolated when it took researchers to carry a newly constructed sample in a laboratory for testing. "That hasn't been true for ten years," said Joseph Berry, a perovskite researcher at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
But stability remains a major challenge.
In another recent study, published in Science in April, researchers discovered a new way to build perovskite solar cells with enhancements that improve efficiency and longevity. Cells withstand 1,500 hours of high temperature and laboratory humidity.
The problem now is to use these findings in the real world. It is difficult for researchers to mimic real-world conditions, and silicon has set the bar high, with many manufacturers guaranteeing that their panels will maintain 80% of their performance for 30 or 40 years.
In a recent field study, researchers found that cells found in perovskite produce more than 90% of their actual levels within a few months. But losing about 10% of cell activity at that time will not stop it.
What’s worse is that these tests are all performed using small cells. Increasing perovskites and making large cells that can be connected together into full-size solar panels often leads to problems with efficiency and overall health.
These challenges mean that the day when perovskites take over the solar markets is near, or inevitable, as some researchers do, Green said.
Properly exploiting perovskites by techniques such as building blocks and defenses may eventually make these solar cells a few decades old under normal operating conditions, says Letian Dou, a perovskite researcher at the University of Purdue. But he predicts that it will take a decade or more before perovskites can make profitable commercial progress.
Despite the difficulties, there is a genuine demand for various types of solar cells. That is especially true now, when the demand for solar panels explodes, says Jenny Chase, head of solar energy analysis at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
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